There are very few things a Hollywood executive can count on these days; certainly the thankfully almost-concluded year of 2025 has underscored that reality. But one of the scarily scant number of chalk bets that do remain is that a movie produced by James Cameron will draw a crowd to theatres and find a way to generate box office. And sure enough, last night DEADLINE’s breaking news champion Anthony D’Alessandro confirmed that with his data-driven update on his latest work:
With a great 72% definite recommend on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak from last night’s audience, 20th Century Studios’ James Cameron threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash is seeing $37 million today, including last night’s $12M. Conservative estimates for a three-day total are between $84M-$88M, though others believe there’s a path to $90M at 3,800 theaters. Global so far is $72M — that includes $17M out of China on Day 1 and $43M abroad. The Na’vi are still adored in the Middle Kingdom, and that opening day in China would rep the third-highest for a MPA title behind Zootopia 2 and Fast X. Early social scores are very good with Maoyan at 9.4 (Avatar was 9.4 and Avatar: The Way of Water 9.0) and TPP at 9.5 (Avatar 9.3, Way of Water 9.2). Know that with Avatar, wherever it lands domestic this weekend, it’s always about the overindexing abroad.
And D’Alessandro continued to pepper his props with reassurances that, in the spirit of the season, “the best is yet to come”:
While that’s $5M lighter than the previews for 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water, which made $17M on its way to a $53.2M Friday and $134.1M 3-day, keep in mind that we’re closer to Christmas, hence audiences are bound to come out for this 3 hour and 17 minute James Cameron threequel once they’re past distractions. Women under 25, who only showed up at 17% yesterday, gave the pic its best definite recommend of 78%, while guys over 25 who repped 41% of the crowd gave it a 75% definite recommend. Men under 25 (22%) gave it 71%, while women over 25 at 20% gave it 63%. Overall, 18-34s yesterday was 64%, with diversity demos at 45% Caucasian, a strong 25% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, 12% Asian American and 6% Native American/other. Sixty-two percent of the crowd told PostTrak they’re big Avatar fans, while 29% are somewhat fans. Ninety-three percent of ticket buyers saw the previous Avatar movies. Of those who attended so far, 52% said they plan to see Fire and Ash in a theater again.
So yeah, that’s good news for Disney and especially for the theatre sector, and Lord knows in light of other recent events they could use anything resembling it. But such buoyance doesn’t come without asterisks, especially when someone like James Cameron is involved. He is neither cheap nor easily swayed from his singular vision; I saw first-hand how the powers at 20th Century FOX bent over backwards to do and approve just about anything he desired when he commanded the lot. That was especially true as they scrambled to find a way to afford the production of TITANIC. The title not only applied to the boat but more so the budget, one that required a handoff to Paramount to cover the eventual $200M nut, which in today’s terms is now more than double. That gambit did pay off in record ways even when adjusting for inflation–FOX made $1.5 billion back on international distribution alone.
The original AVATAR in 2009 shattered that record with a $2.5 billion haul over its 41-day run. Wikipedia ticked off the multiple best-yets it achieved. But a combination of both the passion of the auteur and the corporate machinations that eventually led to the studio’s sale to Disney–not to mention a little COVID paranoia–delayed the release of the first sequel, THE WAY OF WATER, a full 13 years, with nary a spin-off or franchise extension to prop it up the way, say, the MCU was able to do. If for no other reason than the prescience to shoot FIRE AND ASH concurrently–Cameron confirmed such in interviews leading up to this third installment’s premiere–there was only a somewhat more normal three-year gap between installments this time around.
And while the populist feedback so far has been encouraging, the level of critical fandom hasn’t exactly been overwhelming. FWIW, the NEW YORK TIMES’Manohla Dargis‘ review was almost apologetically tepid:
Part of the delight of the first “Avatar” was the panchromatic Utopia that he created for the movie, a lush, meticulous wonderland which Jake entered like a latter-day Dorothy in a digitally souped-up take on “The Wizard of Oz.” You could feel Cameron’s joy in his creation when watching that inaugural outing; he was pumped to show you something that you’d never seen, and so were you. It’s tough to keep the thrills stoked and fired up in franchises, even for Cameron. As usual, he throws a lot into the mix here, including new characters, creatures, landscapes, melodramatic complications and large-scale battle sequences.
OTT PLAY’s Prathibha Joy cobbled together a compendium of way less supportive opinions from the vocal online community:
Comments about the film ranged from, “James Cameron is the most overrated director who has not created anything different in the last 30 years. Same Movie, Same story and same VFX”, to, “Avatar 1, 2, and 3, all three are literally the same movie”, “Avatar: Fire and Ash drags a stale, recycled template for 3h 10m, mistaking length for depth. What felt magical once now feels predictable and exhausting”, “A colossal waste of money. All spectacle, zero soul. Stunning visuals can’t mask the lack of depth and originality” and “Had to walk out of Avatar: Fire and Ash after an hour — all hype, zero pull. Looks pretty, feels empty. Fire, Ash, Water… Avatar is officially a PowerPoint presentation with a budget”, among others.
Reactions like these seem to support the ponderable lament that FORBES’ Dani Di Placido authored in the wake of WAY OF WATER’s 2020 pushback that does a darn good job at articulating how something even this massive a hit is, certainly by Disney standards, falling short of expectations:
(T)he only way Avatar ever gets discussed is regarding its lack of impact on pop culture, which is a pretty unfortunate fate for one of the biggest films of all time. Think pieces from Screencrush, The Telegraph and Forbes lament Avatar’s failure to inspire a wave of imitators, a dedicated fandom, or even an identity, really. What is Avatar, other than that incredibly successful movie that nobody remembers? Why didn’t Avatar leave more of an impact on pop culture? The film doesn’t have a single iconic scene, referenced and parodied endlessly in other stories; there is no “Welcome to Pandora” moment.
Much of the backlash was in response to the ridiculous hype that initially surrounded the film, along with the fact that there isn’t much to soak in, during repeat viewings – Avatar feels emptier with each rewatch. Viewing the film at home, in 2D, isn’t impressive, and while the world of Pandora is lush and pretty (especially if you’re a fan of neon lighting), it doesn’t really feel “lived in.” Frankly, there isn’t enough lore.
Lore is fuel for the dedicated fanbase, the people who cosplay, write fan fiction and spend endless hours discussing, and dreaming about, a fictional world. Lore is real estate for the imagination to roam, after the end credits roll, and Avatar seems to be keeping the majority of its lore for those long-delayed sequels.
Perhaps now that the franchise has reached the threshold of bingeability and assuming a good deal of the potential D’Alessandro’s data points to is reached this may yet turn into an IP stake as valuable down the road as at least STAR WARS, if not the vaunted world of Marvel. And Cameron didn’t stop Disney from including the lovely blue Pandorans in their recent deal with Open AI, thus at least opening the door for such lore to be regenerated and reignited on a whim If we can get as many user-generated versions of Jake Sully as we do Mickey Mouse that helps move merch and create demand for additional theme park and live event offshoots, so much the better. I mean, when was the last time a Na’Vi-dian showed up on your device as, well, an avatar?
Until next time…