We’re in that time of year when the idea of spending time in a movie theatre is even less appealing than usual. The weather’s generally temperate, and in a good deal of the country days that fit that definition are about to become rarer for a good six or seven months. Kids are back in school and football and critical baseball are in high gear. You tell me what night of the week works for you under those circumstances.
Hence the focus tends to be on award-worthy and more ponder-worthy fare as opposed to something the whole family can enjoy in three different formats with a specially overpriced snack box. And this past weekend we got something that appeared to check off all of those boxes, as ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY’s Ryan Coleman took note of yesterday:
Paul Thomas Anderson decisively won the box office battle this weekend. The American auteur’s latest concoction, radical comedic thriller One Battle After Another, earned Anderson the best box office open of his career this weekend, with a $22.4 million take domestically and an impressive global haul of $48.5 million, per Comscore…The combined star power of Leonardo DiCaprio, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn has boosted this adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel Vineland to new heights for Anderson…Anderson, 55, has directed many that went on to international acclaim and awards, but that hasn’t always translated into profitability. His highest-grossing film at the domestic box office, There Will Be Blood, was given a limited release in 2008 that raked in less than $200,000.
It’s that last datecdote that a few more discerning observers are taking note of because, in the cold cruel world that is today’s bottom-line obsessed Hollywood, even this sort of elevated performance is being judged at best as an incomplete or worse. Take THE ANKLER’s Sean McNulty via his weekend WAKEUP newsletter which on this particular Sunday dropped at the yawn-inducing hour of 2:06 PM Pacific:
(T)his would need to hit roughly about $270M global to account for WB’s production spend (pick your $130M or $140M number as ya like), much less the marketing 
efforts…The odds of this movie having a 5.5x multiple from opening weekend are probably about the same as Leo making his next movie an R-rated comedy.
Self-described “ Simon Pulman was even less forgiving:
On its face, One Battle After Another opening to $21M against a reported $130M is an abject disaster. That’s an unusually high budget for a prestige film, and based on a normal box office journey, you’d need a $40-50M opening (at least) to have a shot at recoupment. The saving grace for OBAA is that it may not have a normal journey. Both reviews and audience reactions are glowing, it’s sure to be a Best Picture contender, and if it’s given a long enough theatrical window, it could have excellent legs. We’ll have a better sense by November. With that said, the movie’s marketing was terrible. I’m a very good bellwether for the average audience member and I found it totally unappealing. Moreover, it’s possible that the movie’s political themes hurt it in the current climate. Internationally, it all hangs on DiCaprio.
And so a lot of pundits are insisting that any attempt to place a final grade at the point beyond incomplete would be unjust. And when you’ve got coverage out there from the likes of THE ASSOCIATED PRESS’ Jake Coyle a temporary punt is all the more the appropriate move:
Anderson, many critics said, delivered the movie of year. “One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn, has been hailed as a film brimming with many of the political conflicts of today. Oscar prognosticators have pegged it this year’s best-picture front-runner. Aided by DiCaprio’s drawing power, the film added $26.1 million overseas.
The LOS ANGELES TIMES’ Samantha Masunaga underscored exactly how much of a wild card the last of Coyle’s points could prove to be:
(A)dult dramas have not performed at the box office as they did before the pandemic, as older audiences have been slower to return to theaters. Fans of DiCaprio, who may have followed his career since his turn in 1997’s “Titanic,” fall into that group…But the film notched a solid 98% approval rating on aggregator Rotten Tomatoes and has benefited from buzz about its awards potential.
So Warner Brothers appears to be committed to doubling down on that “unappealing marketing” both for the potential of long-tail adoption that has defined many of Anderson’s previous works. Besides, the less “cautious” that are more frequent theatre goers are gonna have a choice come next weeked, as Pulman reminded:
The other original release next week is The Smashing Machine, another awards contender and a direct rival for Best Actor (Duane (sic)Johnson). Spelling aside (it’s D-W-A-Y-N-E, Mr. “Complexity”!), it’s got a lead with a pretty good track record pf his own at getting folks to pony up bucks, and playing a role that isn’t far from his core persona as “The Rock” (an amateur wrestler and an MMA fighter), his considerably movie-demo fan base could very well be salivating at this one.
And if they happen to be Mets fans, there’s one less compelling reason to stay home and watch sports. They (I) might tend toward taking in a double feature.
Until next time…