After a week of lousy weather across most of the country and lousy news for all but the most brainwashed and misoygnistic among us, we needed an event like the HIGHLY anticipated debut of WICKED: FOR GOOD in theatres that officially began last night but offered a number of preview opportunities for those uberfans who just couldn’t wait to see how this iteration of L. Frank Baum’s books that spawned THE WIZARD OF OZ reimagined the fates of Glinda the Good Witch and her bestie, now far better known to this generation as Elphaba. Suffice to say no one woke up in their original forms back in black-in-white Kansas.
If you do want to know how they indeed lived kinda happily ever after, feel free to click on this superb spoiler alert that ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY’s Patrick Gomez dropped yesterday for those of us either too busy and/or broke to actually schlep out to see it. Though it sure appears we’re part of an even smaller sector of the country that falls into that category, as VARIETY’s Jordan Moreau observed:
“Wicked: For Good,” the highly anticipated conclusion to last year’s pink-and-green sensation, is on track to make between $150 million and $180 million this weekend. It could nab the biggest box office debut of the year. Universal’s musical sequel… has made $30.8 million in previews at the box office, marking the biggest pre-opening haul of the year. Early Monday fan screenings sponsored by Amazon Prime brought in $6.1 million, while additional Wednesday showings made $6.5 million. Thursday previews, including double screenings of “Wicked” and “For Good,” made $18.2 million. The year’s previous record holder was Warner Bros.’ “Superman,” which earned $22.5 million in Thursday previews before making $125 million in its opening weekend. Last year, director Jon M. Chu’s original “Wicked” hauled in $19.2 million in previews and grew to a $112.5 million opening weekend in the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend.
And DEADLINE’s ever-diligent
The first estimates for Friday are in for Universal’s Wicked: For Good which is eyeing $68.5M today and $150M for the weekend, which is at the top of the range we were spotting (not rivals which had crazy high estimates exceeding $175M). If the figures hold at that 3-day level, here’s some of the records that the Jon M. Chu sequel is breaking as of this moment:
- The second highest grossing opening weekend of 2025 domestically ahead of Lilo and Stich ($146M) and behind only A Minecraft Movie ($162.7M).
- The biggest opening weekend for a Broadway adaptation ahead of 2024’s Wicked ($112.5M).
- The second highest opening weekend for a Universal Pictures film of all time domestically behind only 2015’s Jurassic World ($208.8M)
- The second highest opening weekend prior to Thanksgiving behind only The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($158M).
- The third highest grossing opening weekend for a musical of all time at the domestic box office behind 2019’s The Lion King ($191.7M) and 2017’s Beauty And The Beast ($174.7M) and ahead of Moana 2 ($139.7M Friday through Sunday take in what was a $225.4M five-day opening over Thanksgiving last year).
And D’Alessandro further illustrated several relevant qualitative points that justify his rather bullish attitude:
RelishMix points out that the social media reach for the Universal sequel is enormous at 1.33 billion followers across TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, X, and YouTube. “Pre-release social media universe social media universestats on Wicked For Good are running 2.6X above family live genre norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined with YouTube view 2x over norms, Instagram views 4X over norms and TikTok also flying at 3X,” says the stat org. “Convo runs positive for Wicked: For Good. Fans who are outright spellbound by Ariana Grande’s Glinda are calling it a role she was ‘born to play’ and praising her performance as ‘scene-stealing,’, ‘angelic,’ and ‘Oscar-worthy.’ The ‘oh’ heard ‘round the fandom has morphed into a symbol of her precise comedic timing and Broadway roots, triggering multiple rewatches and impassioned deep-dives. The combination of live vocals, physical choreography, and vintage vocal styling had many comparing her favorably to Broadway icons and even Disney princesses. The chemistry between Ariana and Cynthia is widely hailed as ‘flawless,’ while the attention to detail in costumes and production has fans begging for theatrical re-releases. Convo index for Wicked lands at a strong 8.7 out of 10 on the RelishMix scale, indicating highly activated fan engagement, major replay value, and cast performance buzz that primes Part Two for a fervent return.”
All this couldn’t have come at a more welcome moment, especially in light of widespread mainstream news stories from earlier in the week that pretty much suggested that the very idea of going to a movie at all seemed to have gone the way of poor Elphaba (or so it would seem). The epitome of coastal elite taste, the NEW YORK TIMES’ Brooke Barnes, devoted a lengthy lament ahead of last weekend’s who-cares releases:
(N)ot one of the 25 dramas and comedies that movie companies released in North American theaters over the past three months has become a hit, certainly not in the way that Hollywood has historically kept score. Some have played to near-empty auditoriums, including “After the Hunt,” starring Julia Roberts; “Christy,” with Sydney Sweeney; and “Die My Love,” featuring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson. The dearth has added to what has already been a troubled year for Hollywood. The summer season — filled with fantasies and science-fiction sequels — was the least attended since 1981, after adjusting for inflation and excluding the Covid-19 pandemic years.
“To succeed in theaters today, dramas and comedies must have event status — something truly elevated and special,” said Kevin Goetz, an author of the new book “How to Score in Hollywood,” which looks at film bankability. “It’s not a phase,” he added. “It’s an evolution you can’t reverse.”
The esteemed research-driven overlord Mr. Goetz has overseen more screenings and focus groups that just about anyone I know, so I’m surprised that he would have allowed himself to be quoted with such a negative nellie ‘tude knowing full well that W:FG was on its way. And I’m sure it at least some of them–perhaps not the ones he personally would supervise at venues like the West Hollywood-adjacent GROVE–he might have gotten the kind of feedback that OUTKICK’s Ian Miller offered in his populist-driven piece that dropped Thursday:
(O)ne of the big problems is that Hollywood made itself into a political activist organization. Stars, personalities and creative talent have spent much of the past decade telling more than half the country that they hate them and despise their way of life. That doesn’t help. They’ve prioritized subject matter with miniscule appeal instead of the broad, successful comedies and dramas of the past.
The COVID lockdowns supported by the industry also decimated moviegoing. Audiences stayed home, waiting for streaming services, instead of buying tickets to go to the theater. Then, in the aftermath, the industry chasing short-term streaming service gains, shortened the window between theatrical releases hitting, say, Disney+.
One of the biggest factors? Quality has inarguably dropped. Marvel Studios, one of the most reliable factories of mid-level entertainment, abandoned its formulas in favor of hitting specific quotients and targets based on political priorities. It backfired, spectacularly. Bomb after bomb followed their about face. Disney animation and Pixar churned out low-quality progressive slop, undermining their hard-won reputations. Now, outside of sequels, most audiences have stopped giving them the benefit of the doubt.
The knee-jerk reaction to a MAGA-infused rant from someone like Miller from the likes of Goetz and Barnes might be dismissive, and I doubt they travel in the same social circles. But I’ve traveled with folks who share Miller’s ideologies who have chosen to sacrifice priorities like home renovations and college educations for immersive cruises and experiences regardless of the price. It’s folks that them that are driving these kind of outlier results for WICKED Part Deux. Anyone willing to spend ten grand to allow their pre-teens to have breakfast with some college student in a Bugs Bunny outfit doesn’t find the idea of dropping a C-note for them to spend part of a holiday weekend munching on overpriced popcorn and Coke Freestyle concoptions in a public setting all that daunting.
Barnes does rightly point out the concept of lifecycle accounting that may be the silver lining in the cloud that otherwise is hovering over Hollywood:
(S)ome studios contend that ticket sales (at least for certain kinds of films) are no longer an informative measuring stick for success or failure (eventual profit or loss)…Could some of these duds become hits on streaming? Yes, especially if they receive attention from the coming Golden Globes and Academy Awards…The same companies refuse to disclose digital revenue, however.
I’d contend that anyone who grew up with THE WIZARD OF OZ as a de facto kickoff to the holiday TV specials schedule need not require such validation for the long-term play for WICKED that should buoy the relatively stable Universal team all the more. And IMHO ROTTEN TOMATOES’ 27-point gap between critics’ average scores (70) and vox populi (97!) supplies all the validation one needs to offer that perhaps points to Barnes being overly kind to creative choices that regardless of ideology just didn’t motivate the masses in the same way that this did.
Ideological motivation aside, maybe just making films that resonate beyond creatives, voters and NEW YORK TIMES readers might be a way to tap into the kind of potential that could exist in streaming and, yes, linear TV afterlife. After all, as if we needed Dorothy Gale to remind us, “there’s no place like home”.
Until next time….