Well, we’ve almost survived till ’25. Just ten more days left in this year, one that at least media-wise I’d rather forget. And I dare say there’s plenty of you who may have been employed when it started that are now among the more than 14.000 newbies to “career reboot” that are inclined to agree.
So I hope I’m forgiven if I eschew the usual “Best of” lists that have allowed me in past years, and others even now, to take a holiday break and remind all of us of what we thought were my more seminal and impactful musings. In going over the ones that at least I felt were worthy of an encore, it was clear that an even larger number than usual were of a negative tone. And while they may be worthy of referencing, it’s more than a little uncomfortable to simply regurgitate them.
So rather than spend the last ten days of 2024 looking backward, I’d like to amend that and offer a countdown series of musings that attempt to look forward. Some may be considered predictions, though my track record on those isn’t all that great and besides, things can change dramatically in the course of twelve months. At this time in 2023, we all thought an elderly president with clear mental challenges was a shoo-in for a second term. Turns out we were only kinda correct on that one. Who knew?
Call them “Predictions and Wishes”. Feel free to booknote them and if and when something comes to pass the way I’m offering it could–or should–do me a solid and shout it out. And should I be completely wrong, also feel free to troll me if you choose. Unlike many of the sources of the “Best Of” lists you might be reading in the coming days, I’m human.
10. THE NIELSEN/PARAMOUNT SPAT.
It was a little more than 15 months ago when we first got wind of a potential hissyfit between a couple of aging monoliths, The Nielsen Company and Paramount Global. And even though the stalemate had stagnated for a year to a point where war was eventually declared, prevailing “wisdom” was this all would ultimately be a short-lived saber-rattling. After all, the imminency of a contract period ending without resolution was coming at the end of a month that began with another somewhat more consequential one, DIRECTV and The Walt Disney Company, being worked out within about two weeks with the only collateral damage being a minority of households in the New York and San Francisco DMAs missing out on the first Monday Night Football game of the year, which in hindsight for Jets fans was actually a blessing.
Well, on Friday, twelve weeks in, with Paramount still not a Nielsen client and the ratings service reportedly determined to “go nuclear” yet another shoe dropped, as THE WRAP’s Lucas Manfredi reported:
Nielsen has removed some of Paramount Global’s data for advertising measurement in a new product update. The move comes as the two parties have been locked in a contract renewal dispute that has stretched over two months.
The media conglomerate’s data was removed from Nielsen’s Media Information Tape, a service provided to advertising agencies that acts as a one-stop shop to view ratings and check them against their ad buys to determine if they hit their targets.
“All of our clients continue to have a full view of the marketplace, as Nielsen continues to measure Paramount networks and streaming services. However, we have removed Paramount data from transactional files,” a spokesperson for the ratings measurement firm told TheWrap in a statement. “We have made this data available in good faith over the past three months, even without Paramount as a client.
Translated: Much as been the case since vertical integration began to infiltrate television (and I freely admit to being part of at various times, which I now can do since the statute of limitations has long since expired), just because Paramount wasn’t able to find out how they were doing with Nielsen on their own, their clients and friends could. And we all know it’s entirely possible that someone verboten just might have been “accidentally” bccd on an internal corporate memo within Paramount or an outdated distribution list from an agency report card might not have dropped those bad, bad Paramounters as perhaps Nielsen enforcers might have wished.
Immediately, Paramount went into attack mode, as VAIRETY’s Brian Steinberg elaborated:
In a memo sent Friday to executives at major ad-buying agencies, John Halley, president of Paramount’s ad sales efforts, said Paramount ratings data may be more difficult to understand after a new product update by the measurement giant. The two sides have been at odds since October 1, when Paramount revealed it would not renew its deal with Nielsen, citing pricing increases and the easier availability of other measurement technology. “Paramount will continue to provide Nielsen with the first party schedule and program information they require to accurately measure our viewership, including live events, as we always have. To be clear, Nielsen will be in possession of the relevant data but will be suppressing your access to that data,” Halley said in his memo. “This decision was made by Nielsen and will affect the value and utility of your Nielsen data and tool licenses.”
Steinberg also reminded that, much in the same manner as many streaming competitors without legacy businesses have since their inceptions, Paramount has found what for them is a viable and cost-effective alternative:
Paramount has been relying on data from VideoAmp, one of a growing number of rivals to Nielsen, to help advertisers track the number of people who watch programming across Paramount’s portfolio of media assets. And yet, there has been some cause for debate. VideoAmp measures of audience for shows such as “Yellowstone” have in certain cases been higher than what Nielsen has counted. Nielsen’s tabulation remains the industry standard, and has accreditation from ndustry monitor the Media Rating Council, though VideoAmp has been adopted by many major media organizations and media buying agencies.
Translated: Nielsen has been hoping that lazy clients might put enough of a guilt trip upon Paramount executives to have them kiss and make up. Back in times when human beings were largely responsible for the processing and vetting of data, that tactic might have had more of a chance of being effective. But today, with AI increasingly taking over portions of negotiations such as posting and makegood recommendations, that’s no longer the case. Besides, those of a younger generation who are involved have that much less loyalty to what they increasingly see as a lazy vendor.
Besides, the stakes involved are much more personal than existential issues such as the ones being publicly raised. Both Paramount Global’s top sales exec John Halley and Nielsen’s embattled CEO Karthik Rho answer to higher authorities–billionaires who have dramatically overpaid for legacy brands that have been in profit margin freefall in concert with the balance of the media landscape. Both of them have multimillion dollar contracts and potential buyouts if they are able to declare victory. Not to mention the fact that their competitors–and especially the investors that are determining their fates–are well aware that the result of this standoff will determine their own leverage in future negotiations. And with the possibility looming that politics could throw the expected completion of Paramount Global’s acquisition by Skydance into a series of delays at best and even dismantling in a worst-case scenario, there’s little chance that Halley’s gonna cave any time soon. Right now, if he’s transacting on higher numbers which clients seem to be at least accepting are as inaccurate as anyone else’s, and the media is for the most part spinning them as gospel , what motivation does he have to change?
I’ve previously gone on record that I always thought there was little urgency to get anything done until at least the drumroll to the 2025 upfronts begins with louder typanny. Assuming Brendan Carr doesn’t muddy that timeline further, I’ll stand by that prediction and amplify it for these Nostra-dumb-ass purposes. But you never know. He’s got a few billionaires of his own that he needs to prove himself to.
Until next time…