Yesterday was another signpost day in perhaps the most compelling battle for a media prize than we’ve seen in years. There are both financial and political implications, let alone sea changes in how and what winds up where, into how this ultimately shakes out.
The latest, per THE WRAP’s Kayla Cobb:
Netflix has put in an offer for Warner Bros. Discovery that’s mostly in cash, while Paramount has submitted an all-cash offer for the media conglomerate.
A new report from Bloomberg said investment bankers for Netflix, Comcast and Paramount had worked throughout the long Thanksgiving weekend on improved offers for all or parts of WBD. After the initial report, Bloomberg Editor Lucas Shaw posted on X an update that said Paramount’s offer was in all cash and supported by financing from asset management company Apollo Global and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. The New York Post’s Charlie Gasparino had earlier shared on X that Apollo Global was helping to finance Paramount’s bid, which he pegs at $25 a share. Comcast has also submitted a bid, according to the Wall Street Journal. The moves come after the David Zaslav-led media giant asked bidders — including Paramount, Comcast and Netflix — to submit improved offers following the first round of non-binding bids last month.
Netflix and Comcast had both previously submitted bids for WBD’s studio and streaming business, while Paramount has submitted multiple bids for the entire company, including three that came before the bidding rounds, which were rejected for being too low. But unlike the first round, which was non-binding, the second-round bids are binding, which could lead to a deal being signed off quickly, Bloomberg reported.
And as DEADLINE’s Wonder Twins, Dade Hayes and Jill Goldsmith added, there’s already been significant movement of the needle that these days keeps our friend Yosemite Zas edging:
Wall Street analysts, citing recent press reports, estimate that Warner Bros., HBO and the deep vault of franchises and library titles could be worth at least $70 billion. The market value of WBD, which currently includes linear TV networks like CNN, TNT and Discovery, was $59 billion at the end of Monday’s trading day.
So we at least have some idea of what’s gonna float David Zaslav’s boat. But what complicates this is that it’s more evident that ever that Netflix is placing their valuation on those franchises, library titles and IP almost exclusively. I’ve known for years that the one glaring gap in Netflix’s road to world domination has been their lack of a true catalogue of decades-old and battle-tested tiles to ensure long-term engagement and advertiser stickiness. It’s a huge reason why they’ve done deals with Sony, and there’s been song-and-dance between those companies for years. But with all due respect to my one-time employees, K-Pop Demon Hunters ain’t Batman, not just yet.
Netflix seems to have three significant obstacles in their way. One is their purported non-interest in theatrical windows, which Shaw and his wingman Thomas Buckley addressed after Round One bids were submitted:
Netflix Inc. has told management of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. that it will keep releasing the studio’s films in theaters if it’s successful in buying the company, people familiar with the matter said. Warner Bros. has contractual agreements to release movies in theaters, which Netflix would honor, according to the people, who asked not to be identified revealing details of talks between the companies. Up to now, Netflix has resisted distributing its movies in theaters and has grown to rival Hollywood’s largest studios without doing so. The pivot on film distribution will make Netflix’s bid for Warner Bros. “more palatable,” Bloomberg Intelligence noted.
But DEADLINE’s movie pundit Anthony D’Alesssando ain’t necessarily buying it. Here’s how he rebutted the Bloomberg news at that time:
There’s skepticism in town over a Netflix commitment to theatrical. Why? Because co-CEO Ted Sarandos has said repeatedly on various earnings calls to investors that the streamer isn’t varying their distribution strategy. They’re about first run movies on Netflix first. In fact, Sarandos credited the momentum of Kpop Demon Hunters, the streamer’s most watched movie ever, as propelling the pic’s box office, that title’s theatrical release opening roughly two months after its drop on the OTT service.
So take THAT too, Sony.
Secondly, for as little as Netflix may value theaters they value linear networks even less–and they’re not alone. The LOS ANGELES TIMES’ Meg James made sure her readers knew that point in her update from yesterday:
Warner’s current bidding war “reflects the economic reality … that mid-sized legacy media studios/companies can no longer compete with the unit economics of Netflix or the ecosystem of large tech players such as Amazon,” the Bank of America analysts wrote.
They noted that both the Larry Ellison family’s Paramount and Comcast’s NBCUniversal may feel the need to bulk up, prompting both to claw for Warner’s assets, which include the Warner Bros. film and television studios in Burbank, premium channel HBO and streaming service HBO Max.
The HBO MAX overlay, especially for the global potential of Peacock or Paramount Plus, is significant. But those other channels…ewww. Comcast has already shoved most of its portfolio out of 30 Rock and into the inexplicably renamed Versant, led by its newly rebranded MSNOW. So far, the net impact of all of that lipstick-on-a-pig maneuvering has been a shoulder shrug. While ADWEEK’s TV NEWSER reported yesterday that the first official week of “news, opinion, world” showed a slight uptick it essentially offset the decline that occurred when news first broke of the impending change over the summer.
Paramount seems to be a bit more embracing of those old-school businesses, most notably via Larry Ellison’s interest in helping his fellow septuagenarian misogynist play fantasy news director, as MEDIAITE’s David Gilmour duly noted last week:
Larry Ellison and senior White House officials reportedly discussed axing two CNN hosts President Donald Trump hates most, Erin Burnett and Brianna Keilar, in a shake-up promised as he courts regulatory approval for a Paramount Skydance takeover of the network’s parent company, Warner Bros Discovery. Ellison, the largest shareholder in Paramount and MAGA ally, remained in frequent contact with figures in President Donald Trump’s orbit, according to The Guardian, and in a recent call not only discussed potentially firing Burnett and Keilar but also discussed ideas for their replacements with senior White House officials.
I guess when your goal is to put lipstick on a pig it helps to curry favor with someone who already identifies some of their talent as such.
And if that ass-kissing move weren’t enough to quell the fears of nervous old fart(er)s who can’t stomach the concept of progress from the days of the Founding Fathers in any way, shape or form they’re also apparently more than willing to dive head-first back into theaters with perhaps the most ill-conceived reboot anyone’s seen in quite a while. THE DESERET NEWS’ Emma Neff dropped this homogenized version of the news over the past weekend:
“Do you understand the words that are coming out of my mouth?” President Donald Trump apparently does, and it seems he wants to hear more of them in “Rush Hour 4.” According to multiple reports, the president has pushed for a revival of the franchise, prompting Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker to reunite for another installment of the buddy-cop series, which is now in early development. The original 1998 “Rush Hour,” directed by Brett Ratner, became a breakout hit, launching two sequels and cementing Chan and Tucker’s on-screen chemistry as one of the most iconic duos of the era. However, Ratner’s career stalled in 2017 following #MeToo allegations, and his recent reentry into Hollywood has raised eyebrows. After Warner Bros. allowed the “Rush Hour” franchise to be “shopped around,” multiple distributors declined involvement specifically due to Ratner’s attachment, according to Variety. Ratner, meanwhile, has grown close to the Trump family while directing the upcoming “Melania” documentary about the first lady, which will be released by Amazon…Financially, a “Rush Hour” reboot could make sense for the studio. The first film earned $244 million globally, a figure that sparked two even bigger sequels, per Box Office Mojo. The two subsequent films, “Rush Hour 2″ and “Rush Hour 3,″ were even bigger successes, earning $347 million and $258 million, respectively.
Neff at least allowed the X-eet reaction of PUCK’s Matthew Belloni from early last week to reflect the mindset of most of the less overtly fealty flock:
I teased this last night in What I’m Hearing but now confirmed: Paramount WILL release Rush Hour 4 after prodding from Trump on behalf of Brett Ratner. Distribution deal. Producer Tarak Ben Ammar is lining up financing. Get ready for the dumbest possible state-controlled media.
Most observers’ reactions that weighed in over the weekend see this as an ill-fated write-down, offering only the “defense” that a $100 million loss for a buddy comedy last seen in the Obama administration would be a small price to pay to come away with the whole WBD kit and kaboodle–which WOULD include CNN. Baloney–er, Belloni–clearly sees the creative tastes of Fat Orange Jesus right up there with that seen of another obese fool of a different era, the unforgettable Max Bialystock. Ya know, the mastermind in THE PRODUCERS whose stated goal was to make the biggest bomb in Broadway history. If you remember that Mel Brooks classic movie(and I know Ellison and his frat bro are old enough to), or even if you just remember the more recent successful Broadway version, you know it somehow became a hit, led by its signature musical performance, SPRINGTIME FOR HITLER. 
That may just be the most appropriate title for how this all winds up.
Until next time…