I can’t help but literally laugh in the faces–or at least the Facebook profiles–of the ridiculous amount of people who are besides themselves with anger and fury that Spencer Pratt’s political career has come to a wholly unexpected crashing halt. Having our s(h)itting president rant to the point where his usual orange tan clearly had more than a few tinges of red while squatting down with Kristen Welker in a Wisconsin barn was merely the tip of this iceberg meltdown. When it was announced late Monday that somehow the early show horse Nithya Raman had pulled off a relative Silky Sullivan finish to move into second place and a November runoff with the incum-petent Karen Bass, it was for some both revelation and revulsion. Witness how the gentleman who is one tainted Big Mac and one stained couch away from the presidency reacted, as Mediate’s Alex Griffin chortingly reported yesterday:
CNN’s chief congressional correspondent, Manu Raju, spoke to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on Monday and asked him about President Donald Trump’s ongoing claims that the Los Angeles mayoral race is “rigged” against Republicans.
“Speaking of fraud, the president keeps saying that there’s election fraud in the California mayor’s race. What evidence is there to prove that?” Raju asked Johnson while walking through the U.S. Capitol. Johnson replied, “You tell me, Manu. They are counting votes weeks after the election. We have entire nations with huge populations, like India, that can count their votes in 24 to 48 hours.” Raju cut in, “You’re saying it’s rigged, like the president?”“I’m not saying it’s rigged. I’m saying it stinks to high heaven, and everybody knows that. Let’s — let’s — let’s remove the appearance of impropriety. Let’s have — what, what a concept — let’s have votes on an election the day of the election. That’s what many states are able to do. I think California is playing around with us,” Johnson insisted.
“But what evidence is there to prove that the election was rigged?” Raju pressed. Johnson replied, “Some of these efforts are so diabolical and so far upstream, it is impossible to prove. But I think everybody knows instinctively something is wrong here, and that’s a concern.”
You sadly undereducated reforming masturbator. You’ve obviously never spent any quality time with a television researcher.
What I saw unfold over the past week is literally no different than what I’ve observed–and sometimes paid handsomely to explain to equally befuddled people with more skin in the game–with delayed viewing. Ever since Nielsen was able to effectively capture the behavior of folks who at the time had to DVR some of their shows and create multiple data streams we’ve analyzed and reissued reports on how “live-plus-seven” numbers would evolve from “live-plus-same-day”, Heck, I incorporated such a sizzle piece into a pitch I recently wrote for a show seeking renewal that looked at that phenomenon in relative terms. This otherwise more obscure program outperformed a host of more recognizable titles in “seven-day lift”–a point that resonated strongly enough with the network they were negotiating with that it helped secure a renewal.
Now if we can put aside our base Dinesh D’Souza instincts for just a second let’s do some very basic Excel math on what has transpired in this real world “seven-day lift”.
Here’s how the vote looked after night one:
| Bass | 183,700 | 35.00% |
| Pratt | 157,100 | 30.00% |
| Raman | 119,800 | 23.00% |
| Bass | 290,761 | 34.30% |
| Raman | 245,290 | 29.00% |
| Pratt | 216,122 | 25.50% |
Raman was essentially like my little show WILD CARDS, with a seven-day lift of 105%. A relative performance, to be sure, but backed up by the following post-mortem analysis of how she emerged victorious in the delayed vote:
| Raman | 125,490 | 38.87% |
| Bass | 107,062 | 33.16% |
| Pratt | 59,422 | 18.28% |
And since Raman happened to win the lion’s share of a post-live vote that actually represented 38% of the seven-day aggregate at least in my fact-driven world that’s proof enough.
The LOS ANGELES TIMES used more sophisticated graphics than perhaps I’ve dabbled in to display how and where each candidate’s respective heat maps lied in the wake of the first night results. Analysts Sandhya Kambhampati and Sean Greene did a pretty good job of person-splaining which I suspect at least someone in Washington, D.C. might have had the ability to comprehend:
The preliminary results show narrow margins among precincts on the Eastside, with some precincts showing an almost 30% split across the top 3 candidates. Bass retained a strong lead in precincts across South L.A. compared with her 2022 race against Rick Caruso. Pratt has garnered heavy support from his neighbors in Pacific Palisades, as well as precincts in Bel-Air and Shadow Hills. Raman, who represents Los Feliz, Hollywood Hills, Sherman Oaks and Encino on the city council, has so far underperformed in her home 4th District.
As anyone who has any familarity with the demographics of the neighborhoods that Raman was most familiar in already knew, these are populated by busy, higher SES voters who liberally take advantage of the ability to get things done outside of real time. The same way that a majority of TV viewers–especially those who have similar demographic profiles–choose to consume content, especially now that they can do so on streaming platforms that take the task of downloading out of their hands.
And I’m willing to place a farthing on the possibility that Raman probably knew this already. After all, this is the guy she goes home to every night, as the HINDUSTAN TIMES’ Shiran Gupta told readers yesterday:
Raman is married to Vali Chandrasekaran, a television screenwriter and producer known for his work in Hollywood comedy. Chandrasekaran has written and produced episodes for several popular television series, including the NBC sitcom 30 Rock and Modern Family.
30 ROCK practically drove the early demand for delayed viewing as it regularly closed what was initially a wide gap with GREY’S ANATOMY when more complete figures were in–then, as now, that show doesn’t have all that great a lift. And a quick glance at Chandrasekaran’s IMDB profile shows that more recently he’s been attached to Netflix darlings THE FOUR SEASONS and NOBODY WANTS THIS.
So yeah, I’ll put his–and hence Raman’s–knowledge of delayed behavior over that of Pratt and the raving lunatic who falls asleep at NBA Finals. They’re both veterans of reality television, which falls far short of scripted comedies and dramas when it comes to seven-day deltas. And as I recall, even at the very time when 30 ROCK was provoking that sort of behavior neither THE HILLS nor THE APPRENTICE was registering anywhere near that level.
Now, I ask you, Mr. Speaker, does that all sound diabolical? Dull, I’ll concede. But you’re clearly the expert on that.
Until next time…