6. THE CW WILL CONSIDERABLY CLOSE THE GAP IN BOTH RATINGS AND SELLABILITY WITH FOX
Let me be crystal clear. I do read numbers copiously, and I’m well aware that in the pantheon of broadcast networks, FOX is still considerably more viewed and theoretically indispensable than the CW. They still have the NFL and will have this coming year’s Super Bowl. They still have THE SIMPSONS. And for the sake of the many I know who have lovingly worked on it, I’ll also concede that THE FLOOR is a fairly decent asset.
But I also look at trajectories and other business factors because, hey, forty-something years in this declining industry have taught me that those things also matter and, these days, probably more than ever. And a quick visit to TVSERIESFINALE.com shows that 2024 hasn’t exactly been a bellweather year for my one-time employers. Here’s some season-to-date live-plus-same-day figures and, where applicable, apples-to-apples comparisons for any airings in 2023.
Once you’ve digested that, you’ll see some fairly disturbing and consistent trends. Double-digit declines. An animated series (KRAPOPOLIS) that costs far more than any unscripted show was renewed with barely 700,000 total viewers and a year/year loss of nearly 50 per cent of the so-called target 18-49 demo. A returning anthology drama from our other one-time employers at SONY (THE ACCUSED) that now holds the distinction of not even breaking beyond a 0.1 demo rating and is seen by fewer of those viewers than something called CRIME SCENE KITCHEN.
Now take a closer look at how the CW has been doing. Not a lot of shows even hitting a rounded 0.1, to be sure. But much less negative trajectories and one, SULLIVAN’S CROSSING, actually uptrending. A show that emulates the business model that has put the network in a more favorable financial position than it was in when it was ordering far more expensive dramas from their one-time co-owners CBS and Warner Brothers, who reaped the benefits of international sales at the expense of a distribution platform that had little other programming targeting young demos even at a time when the majority of them hadn’t yet given up on broadcast TV. SULLIVAN’S CROSSING is produced for and airs its primary window in Canada and translates well enough to gain in popularity. And come the new year a new season of a similarly financed collaboration, WILD CARDS, will debut. I’m admittedly more than a little biased about it.
Not included in those charts is perhaps the CW’s most successful series, WWE NXT. Fortunately, folks like FIGHT FANS’ Jake Scudder regularly pay attention to such details, and the latest news from his post last week is pretty, pretty good:
The December 17, 2024, episode of WWE NXT saw a notable boost in viewership, proving once again that the brand continues to capture the interest of wrestling fans. According to Wrestlenomics, the December 17th edition of WWE NXT drew 708,000 viewers. This marks an increase from the previous week’s 680,000 viewers. However, the 18-49 demographic rating experienced a slight dip, securing a 0.16 rating compared to last week’s 0.17 rating.
Hey, that’s a rounded 0.2. And, sorry SONY, it beats THE ACCUSED.
But that’s merely prime time. The CW is also poised to make further inroads in sports, with 33 NASCAR Infinity races ready to add to a slate that already includes ACC college sports and thanks to the tenacity of what still remains of the PAC-12, potentially some conference games involving more schools than just Oregon State and Washington State down the road. Yes, something did have to go to make way for the $800 million investment that those Infinity races are requiring. THE STREAMABLE’s David Satin revealed last week what it’s likely to be:
LIV Golf could be on the move. The golf league, which has attracted controversy ever since its inception thanks to funding from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, no longer has a broadcasting deal in place with The CW, and is looking for a new partner. Sports Business Journal reports the league has had “high level discussions” with Fox executives about moving to that channel in 2025. Ratings could jump substantially for LIV if it moved to Fox. Its presence on The CW made it available in 120 million homes, but the final round of a tournament in August only drew 165,000 viewers.
Now contrast that with the level of audience that NASCAR Infinity is bringing over from the NBC family of networks, as SPORTSNAUT’s Matt Johnson noted this past fall:
While the NASCAR Cup Series is largely maintaining its television ratings from the previous season, the NASCAR Xfinity Series is going through a popularity boom. The race last Saturday broadcasted on Peacock and NBC averaged 1.659 million viewers, making it the most-watched Xfinity Series race at Michigan in a decade. It was also the most-watched sporting event on Saturday. Furthermore, NBC Sports is experiencing its highest TV ratings for the Xfinity Series since 2017.
Look, I’m acutely aware that the CW affiliate lineup pales in comparison to NBC’s, especially in markets where NASCAR is appointment viewing. But I saw the same criticisms when FOX invested in the sport at the beginning of this century, and I lived through the meticulous storytelling that accompanied those heavily scrutinized early races. It’s still a critical part of what still works for FOX. Maybe it’s not likely to hit 1.6 million CW viewers, but I’m willing to wager that it will do a tad better than 165,000 viewers. With a lot less tsurris attached to advertising in it than LIV, arguably the poster child of “sportswashing”. As far I’m concerned, FOX, you can take those clubs and do what you wish with them–and I’m sure more than a few advertisers will have some creative ideas of their own what your wishes should be.
And besides, take a look at the coimparative ownership stabilities. Nexstar owns nearly 200 stations, including plenty affiliated with other networks, and they’re not all relying upon expanded local news in a post-election year to goose their profits. And the last time I checked, none of Perry Sook’s children were taking him to court. Sook is even well-liked by the incoming president and could easily expand his empire even further. With FOX’s broadcasting assets essentially becoming collateral damage as this family drama unfolds, dontcha think someone in his orbit has suggested…hmmm…maybe those major market O and Os or even that afterthought general entertainment network might not fit in nicely in his world?
None of this is likely to happen tomorrow, especially if Rupes’ health and the tenacity of his lawyers continues to defy the odds. And I’m not crazy enough to suggest 2025 will be when a lot of these predictions become anything more than wishes on a bottom-line analysis. But I am crazy enough to suggest the CW could inch that much closer to parity with FOX in the next twelve months.
Check that, wild enough.
Until next time…