The Beginning Of Nielsen’s End Game?

It may not have been the most significant victory to be achieved this month, but to the embattled leadership of Nielsen it was pretty darn big.  As TV TECH’s George Winslow reported on Friday:

The Media Rating Council (MRC) has approved the integration of first-party live streaming data into Nielsen’s accredited National Television service. In addition, the MRC renewed accreditation for Nielsen’s National Panel measurement. 

Nielsen reported that the MRC’s vote of confidence in Nielsen’s first-party data integration makes Nielsen the first accredited live-streaming solution with persons-level granularity. The approval of first-party data integration bolsters all of streaming measurement moving forward.

“We’re thrilled and humbled to earn first-party approval from the MRC. It’s a great affirmation of Nielsen’s ability to innovate at the speed of the market, while doing so in a safe and verified way,” said Nielsen CEO Karthik Rao. “With time-tested methodologies like our accredited persons panel and precise new solutions for the streaming era, we believe Nielsen is right where the industry needs us to be—at the convergence of all the ways people watch content. This will give the industry a true view of linear and streaming viewing like never before.”

Given that Nielsen has lacked that stamp of approval for months, and as a quite inormed Andrew Bucholz of AWFUL ANNOUNCING noted in his detailed dissertation from yesterday, the MRC is a 1963-established non-profit association led by representatives from media companies, advertisers, and more...(a)nd it’s the critical group for determining what measurement marks advertisers, media companies, and ratings services can agree upon, it’s understandable that Nielsen is putting forward the kind of strutting and preening that would suggest that they’ve recaptured their unparalleled place as the gold standard of audience measurement.  And as Bucholz was quick to add, a Nielsen spokesperson (told) AA they’re in talks with multiple clients on incorporating this kind of data going forward. 

Nielsen does spend an awful lot of time talking to clients, which is something many of its competitors don’t do quite as well.  But they also spend an ungodly amount of time internally debating and troubleshooting–two major reasons why despite an industry that has desperately wanted something better than what they’ve been delivering, while watching tech-savvy upstarts develop far better ways to at least measure themselves, they are only now getting around to actual deployment.  And a key reason why they even got to this point is because a well-heeled example of it was both motivated and made inroads on getting support for their mousetrap.

Bucholz delivered a concise back story for the otherwise uninformed:

The history here is important, and it dates back to Amazon getting exclusive Thursday Night Football rights beginning in 2022. (Prime Video had previously been TNF’s streaming home since 2017, but Fox had broadcast it over-the-air.) In the 2022 season (which was a faster shift than most were expecting, as the initial Fox contract ran through that season, but they bowed out a year early), Nielsen released just standard panel measurements for TNF, but Amazon consistently released significantly higher internal numbers.

(T)he key thing here wasn’t just Amazon wanting to say a lot of people were watching (although that was part of it from a PR standpoint), but them convincing advertisers a lot of people (and more than the Nielsen panel-alone data showed) were watching. But the advertisers wanted more than just Amazon’s word as proof.

That’s where the Nielsen Big Data+panel approach came in. In 2023, they drew up a framework to incorporate first-party streaming data, and offered it to various clients. But Amazon was the only one to take them up on it at that point.

That led to significant criticism from other networks (especially other NFL broadcasters) and the Video Advertising Bureau trade group, including then-CBS Sports chair Sean McManus saying “Anything that is not impartial and unbiased is unacceptable to us” and VAB CEO and president Sean Cunningham saying “These are areas that an objective third-party measurement/currency provider should not be creating advantages in for one of its clients, while simultaneously (and knowingly) creating competitive disadvantages for a group of its other clients.“

Nielsen pushed back on that, saying they’d outlined clear methodology here and offered it to others. And Rao wrote at that time that “We believe that our principled, transparent and open approach to integrating first-party data requires all publishers to play by the same rules and will accelerate the industry’s move toward a streaming-first world.”

But not all of those other publishers are created equal, nor is their view of Nielsen all that healthy to begin with.  They are already now into their second month of an impasse with Paramount Global, one of those NFL broadcasters.  As we mused earlier this week, they seem more than content with bragging about their success with a competitor Another, FOX, is already ticked off at the NFL for allowing ESPN to hastily add a dual illumination of MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on ABC midway through the season to buttress their sagging numbers, and the fact that Amazon has been able to gain their support for another way that an old-fashioned distributor without the capacity to offer something that levels the playing field is certainly not sitting well with their camp.

And the question that gets begged by all of these other companies that Nielsen is “negotiating” with is–why haven’t they able to get something out sooner that they developed on their own?

It could have something to do with those internal struggles and the staggering price their investors paid to take it private that is clearly not achieving the ROI they may have hoped for.

And if they’re willing to get so deeply in bed with a company like Amazon, which happens to have a global panel of hundreds of millions of Prime subscribers that measures not only viewership but also clickthroughs and transactional data which can actually be connected rather than correlated, on this, might the potential of a full-fledged partnership–or even acquisition–that would allow whatever the combined entity evolves into to offer such powerful and conclusive information to an increasingly borderless advertising community have at least some appeal?

Especially when one further considers that at the moment Nielsen operates panels in 54 other countries besides the U.S.?

And yes, outside the U.S. publishers, even broadcasters, own and operate measurement companies.  Apart from the likes of tech companies that have robust panels that apparently Nielsen now has carte blanche to roll up upon request.

Is it out of the realm of possibility that Amazon might just have the ability to find, say, $16 billion or so in their couch cushions to cash out Roy and his remaining management, providing a platinum parachute as a reward for their “progress?”

Veteran observers like MEDIAPOST’s Joe Mandese and MEDIA DYNAMICS’ Ed Papazian offered their hopeful caveats on what they’d like to see for the moment:

Mandese: What does this mean in practical terms for media planners and buyers? Probably, more stable and representative audience figures, but like most Nielsen currency data these days, it will be a composite of many different inputs, factors, weights and edit rules.

Papazian: Joe, I think that this is a positive move –but Nielsen must show us how the actual device usage information it gets from TV time sellers like Amazon differs from its panel’s estimates for the same shows as only in that way will those who do not supply first party data be satisfied that they are being treated fairly. Also, such comparative information may allow buyers and sellers to adjust their Nielsen findings to bring them in line with the first party versus Nielsen panel rating differentials—if these exist on a consistent basis.  

I’m confident their concerns are echoed by those who are in those “negotiations”.  I can’t fathom Karthik Roy is paying much attention.

He’s far too busy preening with his hard-fought badge of honor.  And probably spending a decent amount of time on Amazon sites.

Until next time…